Only a few things actually hold value
The watch market is frequently discussed as though buying an expensive watch is an investment. For the overwhelming majority of watches it is the opposite: a new watch from most brands loses 30–50% the moment it leaves the shop, exactly like a car.
Value retention concentrates in a small number of references from a small number of makers — principally steel sports models from Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet — where the manufacturer deliberately produces fewer than the market wants.
The waiting list economy
Authorised dealers allocate scarce references to established customers, often after a purchase history of other, less desirable stock. A watch bought at retail can be resold immediately above retail, and for several years that gap was large enough to constitute a business.
This created the grey market: dealers buying at retail from anyone with an allocation and reselling at a premium. It is entirely legal and structurally awkward for the brands, who have responded by tightening allocation and, in some cases, by entering the certified pre-owned market themselves.
The 2022 correction
Secondary market prices for the most speculative references roughly doubled through 2021 and into early 2022, then fell 30–40% over the following eighteen months as crypto wealth evaporated and interest rates rose. Some references remain well below their peak.
It was a clean demonstration that a collectible bid up by financial buyers trades like a financial asset — including on the way down.
Condition and completeness
"Full set" — original box, papers, tags, warranty card and any service documentation — commands a significant premium over a bare watch. Polishing, which most service centres do by default, removes metal and softens case lines; unpolished examples of older references carry a real premium. Service history from the manufacturer matters more than from an independent.
How you would actually trade it
For anything above a modest value, buy from a dealer offering authentication and a warranty, or through a platform with escrow and an inspection step. The saving from a private sale is rarely worth the counterfeit exposure.
Check the serial and reference numbers against the model, the movement against the reference, and the papers against the watch. Counterfeits are now extremely sophisticated — including "franken" watches assembled from genuine and fake parts, which fool casual inspection entirely.
Selling: dealers will buy immediately at a trade price, typically 10–20% below retail-ready market; consignment or private sale gets more and takes longer.
What goes wrong
- Counterfeits and frankens are pervasive and increasingly hard to detect.
- Most watches depreciate. The investment narrative applies to a handful of references, not the category.
- Brand and reference risk. Discontinuation or a redesign can reprice a model overnight.
- Service costs on complicated movements run into thousands.
- Theft. Wearing a valuable watch carries a genuine and rising physical risk in UK cities, and insurance for wear-away-from-home is expensive.
This entry describes how a market works. It is not a recommendation, a price forecast, or advice about whether this belongs anywhere near your money. How entries are written.